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CHAPTER 3
Demographic changes

and challenges in Europe with

special focus on Germany

Dick Moraal, Gudrun Schönfeld

European Union labour markets are currently confronted with several far-
reaching structural developments (globalisation, Europeanisation, immigration,
technological progress, social diversity, individualisation) influencing the world
of work and also the demographic situation in European countries. The
theoretical background of this chapter focuses at first on the analytical concept
of transitional labour markets and then on transitions from the labour market into
retirement/temporary disability and vice versa as well as from (long-term)
unemployment of older persons to paid work and vice versa. These transitions,
however, are not mere supply and demand processes, as the ʻpush, pull, jump,
stay, (re)entryʼ approach stipulates. Especially in Germany ageing of the
population as well the labour force has had noticeable impacts since the
beginning of 2010. Composition of the potential work force by age cohort will
also change radically. German enterprises are particularly reliant on older
employees and on retention of their employability and will be required to react
to demographic pressure exerted by the predicted shortage of skilled employees
and highly qualified staff. This chapter reports on the empirical findings of the
third European continuing vocational training survey (CVTS3) and the German
additional CVTS3 survey. Further, the findings of a Leonardo-II project examining
continuing vocational training for older employees in SMEs are presented.

3.1. Introduction

European Union (EU) labour markets are currently confronted with several
far-reaching structural developments, especially trends towards
internationalisation (globalisation, Europeanisation; see for example, with
special reference to vocational training policy, Busemeyer, 2009; Dunkel and
Jones, 2006; Gross, 2003) as well as technological developments and
emerging social diversity among individuals (changing individual preferences,