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CHAPTER 3
Demographic changes and challenges in Europe with special focus on Germany 57

radically. As a result, the share of the middle age cohort of 35-54 will shrink
while the share of 55-64 will grow noticeably. The increase in the potential
workforce in this latter age cohort in Germany will be among the most
significant in Europe. The effects arising from this trend will impact first and
foremost those people who are between 30 and 50 years of age today. If they
are to counteract effects of demographic trends, it is necessary to start
preparing them now for the challenges it will bring – by stepping up continuing
training measures, for instance (Bellmann and Leber, 2008; Hillmert and
Strauss, 2008; Moraal, 2007a).

3.5.2. Measures to support employment of older workers –
Results of the German additional CVTS3 survey
In Germany the CVTS3 was accompanied by an additional survey of training
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enterprises carried out in 2008 ( ). Among other things, this survey examined
continuing vocational training for older employees and problems enterprises
encounter because of demographic change (Moraal et al., 2009b; Moraal,
2009). First, we look at some aspects of the labour supply push-processes in
enterprises, which are determining the decision whether employees will leave
or stay in an enterprise. Of those enterprises that provide continuing vocational
training 81% employed older employees from 2005 to 2007. The share of older
employees grows steadily in tandem with enterprise size. Employment of older
employees is concentrated in banks/insurance enterprises (93%) and
manufacturing enterprises (89%). At 44%, the share of enterprises in skilled
trades that employ older employees is significantly smaller.
From 2005 to 2007, in 59% of enterprises no person left the enterprise before
reaching the legal pension age. In 25% of enterprises, older employees left prior
to reaching retirement age for personal reasons; 7% cited operational reasons
and 8% reported both. Only relatively few enterprises (17%) predict larger
numbers of older employees retiring early in the years 2009-11. Early retirement
will occur more in larger enterprises than in smaller enterprises in the future.
Most enterprises (64%) that provide continuing vocational training agreed
that decrease of the labour supply starting in 2010 could cause problems for
them in the future. In different size classes and sectors of activity the perceived

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( ) This survey dealt with additional questions regarding qualitative aspects of continuing vocational
training (such as linking initial and continuing vocational training, forms of learning used in continuing
vocational training, training participation of semi- or low-skilled employees). Of enterprises that
provided continuing vocational training and also participated in CVTS3, 302 were interviewed. More
information is available at http://www.bibb.de/en/wlk30480.htm [17.6.2011]. See also Moraal et al.,
2009b.